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The Duct Tape of Heroes: Bayes Rule

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PyData Amsterdam 2016

In this talk I will give many examples of when Bayes rule will help you in your day to day work. I'll quickly show many examples of bayesian statistical thinking in action; the pleasure of inference, probabilistic graphs, model selection, feature generation, even operations research! I'll finish with a dataset from Heroes of the Storm and I'll show why Bayesian models can outperform randomforests.

My talk is made up of the following examples;

basic disease example: what is the value of adding an extra test to a patient give an example of an inference task that is very hard to do properly without bayesian thinking creating simple probibalistic models with pandas and showing how they are robust against missing data. I will also demo pomegranate, a new probabilistic programming tool for python. show how you can use bayes rule to pick models demo a bayesian probablistic approach to finding overpowered characters in the Heroes of the Storm video game.

Slides available here: http://koaning.io/theme/notebooks/bayes.pdf.

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